Media Release: Update on the coronavirus by Premier Alan Winde

For Immediate Release
9 July 2020

As of 1pm on 9 July, the Western Cape has 16 449 active cases of COVID-19, with a total of 74207 confirmed cases and 55 534 recoveries.

Sub Districts Cape Town Metro:

Sub-districts:

Unallocated: 6319 (3646 recovered)

Data note:  As the province moves closer to the peak and the Department of Health is recording over 1000 new cases daily, it is not possible to check and verify that the address data supplied for each new case is correct, within the time frames required to provide regular and timely updates. This means that in some instances, cases could be allocated to the wrong sub-districts. We are working with the sub-districts to clean and verify the data and where errors are picked up locally, cases will be re-allocated to the correct areas.

More data is available here: https://coronavirus.westerncape.gov.za/covid-19-dashboard

The Western Cape has recorded an additional 47 deaths, bringing the total number of COVID-19 related deaths in the province to 2224. We send our condolences to their loved ones at this time.

High flow nasal oxygen:

One of the ways the Western Cape is treating seriously ill COVID-19 patients in hospitals is with high flow nasal oxygen- which allows doctors to deliver concentrated oxygen to a patient’s lungs, without a ventilator. After seeing some positive initial results treating patients early on in the pandemic at Tygerberg, we have expanded the treatment and we now have over 160 high flow nasal oxygen machines available in the province.

This treatment is especially important as it does not need to be performed in an ICU setting, and can be administered to patients in acute beds.

This week, Groote Schuur Hospital was able to report some excellent news as five patients at the hospital were deemed well enough to be discharged from ICU and high care to regular wards on the same day, after receiving this life-saving care. Not only is this wonderful news for the patients who are on the way to recovery, but it is a reflection of the hard work and dedication of all of the staff at Groote Schuur hospital who are working on the frontlines to ensure that those who need care, are able to access it.

I would also like to once again share a message of deep gratitude for all the healthcare workers in this province. These phenomenally dedicated people are a true inspiration as they go and work to save lives on the front lines every single day. We thank you all for everything you do.

Mandela Day:

Each year, we mark the birthday of our first democratic President, Nelson Mandela, in July by committing to helping others or performing selfless acts for at least 67 minutes. This year, we have already seen so many South Africans embody the spirit of love, sharing and selflessness, helping wherever there was a need, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the vast humanitarian need created by the lockdown.

Many of the patients in our healthcare facilities are among our most vulnerable, and we would like to provide them with some warmth and comfort during their stay. You can help by preparing a care package, or donating some of the most needed items such as fleece blankets, socks, toiletries, warm clothing and face masks.

You can also include a home made get well soon card, write a poem, or draw a picture that we can give to our patients.

Individuals and corporates wanting to get involved, please contact Harry Grainger at The Health Foundation for more information on how to donate: 021 418 1580 / 072 6133 719

You can also drop off your care packs. Carefully label it with “Spreading Warmth” and your name and drop it off at:

• The Health Foundation offices (16^thFloor Norton Rose House, 8 Riebeek Street, Cape Town)

9 July 2020

Dear members of the media:

Please accept our apologies for the postponement of today’s digicon.

Premier Alan Winde has taken the decision to rest at home, on the advice of his doctor, due to having a slight fever as a result of Covid-19. As he has type 2 diabetes, Premier is monitoring himself closely. His blood glucose levels were also higher than usual this morning, determining the decision to take due precautions and rest.

A new date for the digicon will be communicated in due course.

8 July 2020

As of 1pm on 8 July, the Western Cape has 16 750 active cases of COVID-19, with a total of 72 808 confirmed cases and 53 881 recoveries.

Sub Districts Cape Town Metro:

Sub-districts:

Unallocated: 6018 (3493)

Data note:  As the province moves closer to the peak and the Department of Health is recording over 1000 new cases daily, it is not possible to check and verify that the address data supplied for each new case is correct, within the time frames required to provide regular and timely updates. This means that in some instances, cases could be allocated to the wrong sub-districts. We are working with the sub-districts to clean and verify the data and where errors are picked up locally, cases will be re-allocated to the correct areas.

More data is available here: https://coronavirus.westerncape.gov.za/covid-19-dashboard

The Western Cape has recorded an additional 38 deaths, bringing the total number of COVID-19 related deaths in the province to 2177. We send our condolences to their loved ones at this time.

RX radio at Red Cross War Memorial Children’s Hospital wins global innovation prize:

Today, I would like to send a huge congratulations to RX Radio, based at the Red Cross War Memorial Children’s Hospital. This station, which run by children, for children, has just been named a winner in the Reboot Health and Well-being innovation challenge, run by the World Health Organisation. This challenge is aimed at celebrating young people’s creativity and their solutions to some of the health issues they face.

​Innovation is one of the values that this government celebrates, and to see our province’s children being honoured for their ideas makes me so very proud.

RX Radio is the first radio station in the world to have trained child reporters from within a hospital. Many of their reporters are patients at the hospital, or family members or friends of a patient.Since the advent of COVID-19, the young people of RX radio have developed innovative and exciting new ways to continue telling young people’s stories.

I myself have had the opportunity of being interviewed by these exceptional young people but I think what is most important is that young people are able to tell their own stories and the stories of their peers. Being able to hear and tell their stories at a time like this is necessary, and the young reporters of RX Radio have done an exceptional job.

You can watch the winner’s announcement video, with a presentation by one of the RX radio reporters here: https://ideas.unite.un.org/reboothealth/Page/Home and see some of the work that the RX Radio team has produced here: http://rxradio.co.za/coronavirus/experiences/

8 July 2020

Tomorrow, Western Cape Premier Alan Winde will hold a digital press conference over Microsoft Teams which will provide an update on the province’s response over the first 100 days of the lockdown as well as more detail on our diabetes risk response.

Premier Winde will be joined by Health Minister Nomafrench Mbombo, Health HOD Keith Cloete and endocrinologist, Dr Joel Dave.

Date:  8 July 2020

Time:  12 pm

Digital platform: Microsoft Teams

Please confirm your attendance by 9 am tomorrow and provide your name, surname, the name of your publication and your email address to be added to Microsoft Teams.  We will provide you with a meeting invite to the briefing, upon your confirmation. Only those who have confirmed attendance will be admitted.

8 July 2020

I received a positive test result for Covid-19 this morning, and I am in self-isolation at home for 14 days.

On Sunday, I started to develop mild flu-like symptoms. As I am Diabetic (type 2) and over 55 years of age, I know I am at a higher risk of developing a more serious illness. I, therefore, went to be tested to determine the cause of the symptoms on Monday.

I have stayed at home as soon as I started feeling sick and can confirm that I am only experiencing mild symptoms. It feels like I have a cold.

However, given my risk category I will be carefully monitoring my health to make sure that any change is picked up quickly.

I will still be taking all meetings to coordinate our Covid-19 response in the Western Cape. The Western Cape has been working around the clock to ready our healthcare system for the increase in cases expected over this time, and we will not let our foot off the pedal. The fight continues.

Based on medical advice, I am also contacting my previous contacts from three days prior to my first symptoms. This is an important responsibility that we must all undertake when we test positive. ‘Close contacts’ must self-quarantine. This means that you must stay at home and not come into contact with other people.

Tomorrow, I will host my weekly Digital Press Conference (“DigiCon”) and will be available to answer more questions from members of the press. You can also watch this live on my social media channels. I will also use the opportunity to share medical expertise on Diabetes as a high-risk category during Covid-19. As I am Diabetic, this is something very close to my heart.

I also look forward to meeting with President Ramaphosa online during the scheduled President’s Coordinating Council meeting on Thursday afternoon, and will be chairing our second cabinet meeting of the week on Friday morning, which takes place on MS Teams.

My message to the people of the Western Cape at this time is to take Covid-19 seriously. Anyone can get it. So, please keep yourself safe, and your loved ones safe. Follow the 5 golden rules at all times, including wearing a cloth mask, cleaning surfaces regularly and washing or sanitizing your hands often. And, please be kind, and compassionate at all times.

To those residents who have also tested positive for Covid-19, I wish you strength and speedy recovery. This is a difficult time for all of you and your families, and I want you to know that the Western Cape Government is doing everything it can to make sure we beat this pandemic.

2 July 2020

Latest epidemiological evidence: Western Cape peak likely to be flatter, later and longer

At the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in the Western Cape, I made clear that our province’s Covid-19 response would be evidence-based and data-led.

In an unprecedented crisis of this magnitude it was critical that we consider potential scenarios, and that we provision for them so that every person can receive medical care should they need it.

In doing so, we have always opted for the most “pessimistic” outlook. A caring, responsible government needs to do this, so that we are never caught wanting. You plan for the worst but intervene to get the best possible outcome.

The Western Cape’s original provisioning scenario from end of April 2020

In April, I revealed our very first scenario planning projections to the public. These projections could not be based on real data in the province, as there simply wasn’t enough cases in the Western Cape and South Africa at the time. It therefore looked at international trends, our population size, and factored in reasonable epidemiological assumptions.

Once the number of cases climbed in the province, and we had more data available to us, we again looked at our provisioning scenarios and checked whether it was still reasonable to follow these original projections.

The National Covid-19 Epi-Model calibration using Western Cape data from end of May 2020

Because we wanted this to be as credible as possible, we partnered with two expert associations – the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA), and the National Covid-19 Modelling Consortium and recalibrated the provisioning scenario using the new data available.

To recap, the National Covid-19 Epi-Model (NCEM) calibrated to the Western Cape data, projected at the end of May:

• A peak towards the end of June, beginning of July 2020, that was notably steeper than our original provisioning scenario. This peak however was not as steep as the ASSA model.
• As a result, there was a requirement of approximately 7800 beds at the peak of the pandemic. We had previously worked on a 6200-bed requirement.
• Cumulative deaths of approximately 9300 people in the Western Cape (over the entire curve).

At the time, our original provisioning scenario was still tracking the number of deaths and hospitalisations reasonably accurately. But the new modelling projected that at a point in time the two scenarios would diverge – and the Western Cape could see a surge of hospitalisations and deaths in line with this steeper curve.

We have been tracking our daily deaths and hospitalisations – which remain the most robust measurements available to us – against this new provisioning scenario and we can confirm that the significant surge that was projected as a realistic possibility did not take place to the degree that was anticipated during June.

Our hospitalisations (both public and private) of patients with confirmed COVID-19 have been tracking around 1700-2000 patients consistently for the last two weeks, and the estimated number of deaths is tracking around 60-70 deaths a day, accounting for anticipated delays and under-reporting.

We cannot be certain, because the Covid-19 pandemic is unprecedented

At this point, I need to make an important point about “modelling”. During a novel Covid-19 pandemic, it is not a perfect science.

Models are projections, using available data and based on assumptions. They help us explore what might transpire, but the outputs should be treated with caution and full understanding of the inherent assumptions, limitations and uncertainty.

It is very important to remember that Covid-19 is a new virus and that we don’t have natural history to underpin these assumptions. Also, our behaviour every single day does makes a real difference. Certainty is therefore not possible during this challenging time.

This makes it difficult for a government to plan. Do we build more field hospitals, or do we have enough beds with the existing interventions?

The latest NCEM calibration of Western Cape data from end of June 2020

With more data available, we have again worked with the National Consortium and the ASSA to recalibrate our provisioning scenario.

The NCEM calibration has been completed, and the latest provisioning scenario has the following conclusions:

• The peak in the Western Cape seems to be later than was originally projected and is likely to take place from end of July to beginning of August.
• This peak is also flatter than was originally projected. This means that we will not have as many hospitalisations and deaths at the peak as we originally thought.
• As a result, it is projected that 5450 beds will be needed at the “peak” should this scenario hold. This is lower than both the original provisioning scenario from April (6304), and the previous NCEM calibration from May (7800).
• However, this flatter trajectory would last for longer. This means potentially more cumulative deaths of approximately 10 000 people during the pandemic.
• The virus is could be with us for longer than we thought, with this first peak only ending towards end of November.

Implications for Western Cape provisioning

So, what does this all mean for the Western Cape Government’s provisioning?

Given this latest projection and given that we have not seen the expected surge in hospitalisations, we will not proceed with a CTICC 2 Hospital of Hope expansion at this stage. Our existing platform, with the operational field hospitals, and private sector capacity, means we have capacity at this stage to manage the expected burden.

However, we have done extensive planning for such an expansion and it remains “on-the-table” should the data suggest it will be needed.

Indeed, these latest projections can change given the unprecedented nature of this pandemic, and so we will continually analyse the data to make the best possible decisions in this uncertain time.

The Western Cape Government Cabinet has also approved a plan to purchase additional beds in private facilities for public sector patients. The advantages of the plan are multi-fold:

• The infrastructure and capacity (they are fully equipped and staffed) exists in place and can be accessed anytime when available.
• We have done the preparatory work and have signed off with the major    private hospital groups and is in the process to sign independent practitioners.
• Several engagements, processes and mechanisms have been put in place to manage the interface between the public sector and private sector including referral, governance, billing and information management through an intermediary, ethics committee, evidence-led clinical guidelines.
• This also adds capacity in rural areas, that do not have access to existing field hospitals in the Cape Metro.

You can change this curve again through your behaviour

The Western Cape Government is fortunate to have some of the best and brightest minds working in our Department of Health. These top scientists are not yet clear on what has caused our curve to be flatter and pushed out. We are dealing with an unprecedented scenario, and we are learning about this virus every day.

Some of the factors posited is that the virus is peaking in different places in the City at different times. Another scenario is that the virus does not infect everyone in the same way. Behaviour change interventions, such as wearing a mask, and keeping a distance can also make a real difference.

As more data becomes available and as we learn more about the pandemic in the Western Cape and South Africa, we will be able to be clearer on the reasons for these changes. I will share this information with you as soon as I have it. I can also assure you that we are constantly analysing our data so that we make the best possible decisions.

For now, I want you to know one certainty during this time: you have the power to change this curve again.

Changing the way that we behave, by wearing a mask, keeping a distance, and following good hygiene, will interrupt the spread of the virus. This will flatten the curve further. This will keep your loves ones safe. This will save lives.

I know that this pandemic is over-whelming and we are “told” by government do so many things. I want you to know that you really can make a difference by making these simple behaviour changes in your life. I am so grateful for everyone who has done this already, and I urge every person who hasn’t yet to join us in our effort to beat Covid-19 in the Western Cape.

Stay Safe. Keep your loved ones safe. Save Lives.

1 July 2020

Today, Western Cape Premier Alan Winde will hold a digital press conference over Microsoft Teams which will provide an update on the epidemic in the Western Cape and the health system’s response.

Premier Winde will be joined by Health Minister Nomafrench Mbombo ,Health HOD Keith Cloete and Professor Andrew Boulle.

Members of the media must please note the time change from the regular time slot for tomorrow’s digicon.

Date:  2 July 2020

Time:  12.30pm

Digital platform: Microsoft Teams

 Please confirm your attendance by 9am tomorrow and provide your name, surname, the name of your publication and your email address to be added to Microsoft Teams.  We will provide you with a meeting invite to the briefing, upon your confirmation. Only those who have confirmed attendance will be admitted.